Risk reduction in decision making comes down to two main considerations:

Increasing our knowledge of the problem by such techniques as soft systems engineering, SODA or any of the many tools that enable us to gain a foothold on the nature of the issue and dealing with the uncertainly of the risk. Here is a simple approach that puts some rigour in our thinking when it comes to breaking down a complex problem and deciding what to do next.

There are Ten Commandments in risk reduction (Morgan & Henrion 1990)

• Do your homework
• Problem drives the analysis
• Make analysis simple (but not too simple)
• Identify all relevant assumptions (and write them down)
• Be explicit in your decision making criteria (and write them down)
• Be explicit in the uncertainties (and the unknown unknowns thanks to rumsfelt)
• Do sensitivity and uncertainty analysis
• Iteratively refine the problem statement and the analysis
• Document clearly and completely…
  … And expose your work to peer review

If analysis can be understood it becomes more acceptable and people will buy in and have more faith in the outcome – but be careful and do not make the work over complex and avoid over simplifications as well. Both stop people making an informed decision based on what evidence you have. Also as seen above document what you do during the process that way when it goes wrong (as it often does) we can learn and move forward and get it right next time – it is particularly important to set down assumptions and what you think are ‘givens’ – these are the points that we most often get wrong.

Planning a Green Christmas

The song tells of a white Christmas, but that refers to the weather and the Christmasy atmosphere that snow can bring. Planning for a green Christmas is all about being environmentally active and aware while saving money as well. In times of economic uncertainty that must surely be a good thing. And of course, if the weather brings a little bit of white covering too, then that makes a green Christmas perfect!

Exchanging gifts is a common practice at Christmas, and this is an excellent place to start our green Christmas habits. The gift wrapping paper sold in stores is usually not recyclable. Most of it is immediately thrown away to end up in landfills. This makes gift wrapping with store-bought paper expensive and very unfriendly to the planet – not what we want for a green Christmas.

A much better alternative, and one that close relatives will appreciate, is to use your children’s artwork to wrap gifts. You could also use your children’s comic books, or the comic sections of newspapers as a bright and colorful alternative, thereby recycling old paper. You can explain to the recipient of the gift in a positive way why you are doing this and perhaps make them feel guilty for not having a green Christmas as well.

It has been calculated by the Sierra Club, America’s oldest and largest environmental organization, that if every family in the country gift wrapped just three gifts by recycling existing paper they already have, the paper saved would be enough to cover 45,000 football fields. Now, that’s a green Christmas and a whole lot of trees saved too!

If you plan to hang a wreath on your front door. consider making one yourself. It’s easy and very environmentally friendly – and you’ll save money too. Go into the forest, or even a nearby park, and find evergreen branches and dried twigs. These can be wrapped in a circular fashion with cranberries strung together to add a splash of bright color. You’ll surprise yourself at how good you are, it won’t cost you anything but a little time, and the materials are all fully biodegradable. Your green Christmas can’t get much better than that.

There are many more things you can do to make this a green Christmas. Consider making your own cards, for example. Use your children’s artwork again – it’s perfect for this and grandparent will love it. You can use LED lights on your tree (which should be a real one that can be planted out later) and you will save 90% on your green Christmas electricity bill. If you start thinking about it I’m sure you will come up with other great ideas for a green Christmas.

Dealing With The Loss Of Data

Data loss is something that can be very traumatic.  Whether it’s a business with important files and documents, or an individual with precious pictures and videos, losing data can be a very traumatic and stressful situation.  If you’ve never experienced hard drive failure or losing data before, it can indeed be a situation where you find yourself wondering what to do.

No matter what you happens, you shouldn’t stress out or let the situation get the best of you.  Although computers are great to have and hard drives work very well for storage, they are both machinery and are bound to fail at some point in time.  No matter how sophisticated hard drives get, they will never be able to completely avoid crashes or failure.

In most cases, your data can be recovered, which is always good news.  When your hard drive first crashes or you notice that your data is missing, you should immediately take it to a local specialist.  The specialist will be able to evaluate your hard drive, find out what the problem is, and then tell you.  The evaluation process could take anywhere from 1 day to a couple of weeks, so you should always prepare yourself for anything.

Once the hard drive has been evaluated, they will go over pricing with you and tell you what options you have.  At this point, you can decide if you want to go with their offer, or how you want to proceed.  Keep in mind that this can be very costly, although at this point it may very well be the only chance you have for recovering your data.

The smartest way to avoid data recovery altogether, is to create a backup of your files and keep backing them up.  Companies and those who do their work with computers should always back things up at least once a day.  This way, if your hard drive happens to crash or you lose all of your data, you’ll have the back up files safe and sound.  Then, when you take your hard drive to a specialist to be recovered, you’ll have the files to keep on working.  Also, at this point, you can choose whether or not you want to have the hard drive recovered, or just scrap it and get a new one – as you’ll have all the files backed up and ready to use.

In the event of data loss or hard drive failure, you should always remain calm and know that there are options out there to help you recover your data.  If you’ve been backing up your information, you won’t need to worry near as much.  From backing up your data to data recovery specialists – you’ll have the options you need to keep your sanity and recover your lost data.

The diagnostics that are associated with computers can help to identify any problem or failure that computers show when they are having problems.  Diagnostics are used to test out the computer system, which includes both the BIOS and memory, software, and even the hardware that is attached to the computer.

The most common types of problems will occur when your computer is down to very low resources, which can either be a low amount of RAM, or a low disk space.  These conditions are very common, and generally result in your computer running very slow.  This can easily be fixed, all you have to do is defrag your hard drive, and get rid of some programs and files that you no longer use or need.

Almost all types of computer diagnostic software can find and fix just about any problem that you are having.  It normally starts off with a BIOS examination, and goes on from there.  PC diagnostics
software can determine a lot from the BIOS, from the common settings to those that have a major impact on both boot up and performance.

No matter what you do, you should never modify or tamper with the BIOS settings, as it can lead to serious problems.  If you do plan to modify or mess with your BIOS, you should always create a backup first, just in case something goes wrong.  The BIOS settings can be very tricky, although they are responsible for a lot to do with your computer.  If you have never been in the BIOS before, you really shouldn’t be modifying anything inside of it.

Depending on the diagnostics program that you are using, there will be several different features available.  Right now, two of the most popular are Norton Systemworks and PC Doctor.  Both of these programs offer full diagnostics software, good for fixing just about any software related computer program you can imagine.

Once you run the program, you’ll be able to select the diagnostic test that you are planning to run.  Some offer you a full system scan, which will scan your entire computer and then display any problems that you having.  After displaying any problems, the software will normally give you an option to go ahead and fix it.  As long as the problem is nothing serious, the diagnostic software can generally fix it.

The more complicated problems, such as hardware failures or hard drive crashes, are a totally different story.  They will require a technician who is very experienced, that can rebuild the hardware.  Diagnostic software can report hardware problems to you, although most of the time it is unable to fix it.

There are other computer diagnostic software that you run after starting the computer or rebooting, that will check everything from BIOS.  These types are great, although the types such as Norton and PC Doctor are by far superior.  They offer far more features, including defragment, cache cleaner, and the option to delete your temporary Internet files.  These features are great to have, especially if you aren’t the technical type.

For more reasons than one, computer diagnostic software is the ideal way to find and prevent problems with your computer.  Norton Systemworks offers you Ghost as well, which is the perfect way to back up your data.  You can back up certain files, or just go ahead and back up your entire hard drive.  Systemworks and Ghost are very easy to use, even if you are completely new to computers.  For everything they offer you – computer diagnostic programs are the ideal way to prevent problems before they happen.

Writing a special report, or ―white paper, as it’s commonly called, is a fantastic strategy for creating leads for your business.
A simple ten to twenty page document that people can request from your website will create a strong desire for people wanting to do business with you. Writing a special report isn’t complicated. In fact, even if you don’t like writing, you can easily and quickly write a report by following these seven tips.

1. State the “Big Problem.”
You’ll get your reader’s attention if you jump right into what their ―point of pain or problem is they’re experiencing. Demonstrate through writing that you: Understand the core problem they’re facing Care they are having this problem Understand how frustrating having this problem is for them

2. What is the cost of this problem?
People respond faster to alleviating problems and pain, than they do to the potential for gain. So, it is imperative in your special report you specifically communicate what this problem is costing them. Perhaps it is they are losing out on money they could be using to fund a desired lifestyle, to live debt-free, pay for their children’s’ college education, etc. Quantify this cost, if you can!

3. Talk about the general solution.
First, start out by giving a ―big picture solution to solving the problem, such as hiring a coach to accelerate achievement of desired results, or implementing a solid, results-oriented marketing strategy.
Second, talk about how people have tried other solutions, have failed, and why. Examples of reasons why could be ―programs are too complicated to understand or are incomplete or ―includes too much technical jargon. Providing the solution in this format sets you up as THE solution to the problem!

4. State your specific solution.
Lay out your method or system to the reader. This section should be a minimum 50% of your entire special report, and is where you briefly communicate your process for solving the problem. Perhaps you have a seven-step marketing system, or a five-step method for attracting the perfect mate.
It is important in this section to tell your reader what you do—but, not how to do it! The ―how is what you want them to pay you for (solving the problem). However, give the reader some tips and strategies they can use to start solving their problem. This helps build a relationship, and their ―like and trust factor with you.

5. Prove your solution works.
Share the results of your solution by sharing case studies of actual clients you’ve worked with previously. A great formula to use to tell a case study is the P.A.R method – Problem, Action, and Result, and works like this:

1. State the Problem a client had before they worked with you
2. Show the Action your client took, and how the problem was solved.
3. Tell the Results the client experienced; quantify results, if you can.

6. State your credibility.
What are your credentials? What is your success story? How did you discover the system or methodology you use? You can include this information in a one-page biography to establish your authority and expertise on the subject.

7. Tell the reader what to do next.
By now, your reader should be aching to work with you, and excited to take the next step. Point the reader in the right direction, and clearly, specifically spell out a call to action. Give them an irresistible offer they can’t refuse, and a time limit for them to take advantage of the offer.
One final tip…make you special report conversational. As you are writing, think about a specific person you would be writing this to, like a friend or person you know. The purpose of your special report is to build a relationship between you, and your lead. This builds their ―know, trust, and like factor with you. Moving them closer to doing business with you!

Bonita L. Richter, MBA, teaches coaches, consultants, and solo professionals how to market their businesses to increase sales , income, and generate wealth. To download her popular and *FREE* Money and Marketing spreadsheet tools, and BONUS gifts visit Profit-Strategies.biz

What happens to many people is that they’re just about to buy some wireless equipment, and then they have a sudden realisation — they have no idea how their network layout is going to work with a wireless connection. Well, there are a few things you need to think about when you decide how you’re going to connect up your computers with all that great new wireless stuff.

Ad-hoc Networks.

Ad-hoc networks are the ones your wireless devices create more-or-less on their own — they are also known as peer-to-peer networks. In an ad-hoc network, each computer on the network acts as an equal ‘peer’, with each one sending data to any other. This arrangement is most often used in place of a real LAN, to allow employees in a company, for example, to exchange files. You can create ad-hoc wireless networks between any computers that have wireless equipment — access to the Internet is not required.

These networks work using something called an ‘SSID’ (Service Set Identifier). Essentially, this is the network’s name, decided on the computer that was the first to connect to the network (yes, a network consisting of just itself). The other computers that connect to the network can then simply connect by finding the network with the name (SSID) they want.

This is powerful. You can put your wireless-enabled laptop next to a friend’s, and the two computers can create a little network for themselves on the fly. Thanks to the way wireless networking works, they keep the connection even if you move them around — the only thing that will force the computers to disconnect from each other is if they go out of range. For many people, this spells the end of messing around with CDs and floppy disks — they can finally use their laptop just like a briefcase, carrying everything from one place to another.

Arriving somewhere with your laptop and being automatically included in the wireless network also gives you access to shared resources, such as printers. Imagine being able to take your computer to somewhere where there’s a printer, press print, collect the document and walk away again. Ad-hoc networking makes this a reality.

Access Points.

An access point, on the other hand, is a way of connecting your ad-hoc wireless network to a real, wired network. Note that this network could just be a LAN, or it could be the entire Internet. There are hardware access points and software ones, with either kind allowing you to connect your wireless device to a wired network. Internet Connecting Sharing, for example, is a software access point to the Internet, while a wireless router is a wired one. If you have wireless access at your office, the chances are it is provided as a wireless access point to the wired network, to let people bring in wireless devices and connect them to the office LAN.

A network that contains an access point is sometimes called an ‘infrastructure’ network, as opposed to an ad-hoc one. It’s worth remembering, though, that part of the infrastructure network still consists of the ad-hoc network between the computers — they can still communicate just the same as they could before.

If you think about it, you can see that the access point structure allows you to create a series of networks, all interconnected. The Internet, in this scheme, is just another wired network. You can connect your wired network to the Internet, connect your wireless network to an access point to your wired network — whatever you want.

The string of networks is potentially never-ending, with wired networks being able to break out into wireless ones as often as they need to. This concept is sometimes called lilypad networking, because it lets your computer be like a frog, hopping from lilypad to lilypad. Even though the whole area of the water isn’t covered with lilypads, the frog can still get through — and you can make wireless networks work the same way.

Every business, small or large, should be thinking of how to go green at work in order to save money and the environment at the same time. Workers can be wasteful at work. Sometimes it’s because they are not paying for their carelessness, or maybe because their boss doesn’t care either. Knowing how to go green at work, at least a little bit, is invaluable. We should all be doing it and we can easily do it too.

Here are 5 simple tip to help…

1. The office printer is one appliance in the work place where you can start learning how to go green at work. Paper comes from trees. Trees absorb carbon dioxide, preventing it from accumulating in the atmosphere and adding to the global greenhouse effect. You can cut paper usage in half at a single stroke by simply printing on both sides of every sheet of paper. That’s one example of how to go green at work and save money too!
2. Business travel costs a huge fortune every year. This is not how to go green at work. No one travels by bicycle, or walks to meetings. No, they travel in huge gas-guzzling jets, or along highways in comfortable cars. Business travel puts a considerable strain on the planet. The answer? Use video conferencing as much as possible. With a good high speed Internet connection and a decent web cam, you can speak to anyone anywhere in the world. There’s a good choice of conferencing software available, and all at a mere fraction of jet travel.
3. Work from home. That answers the question of how to go green at work by cutting down on office expenses. You heat your home anyway, and as long as you have the necessary communications needed to do your job, then why not work from home! Of course, if you’re a truck driver, or a circus clown, it may be more difficult.
4. Invoice by email. This is one of the simplest ways of how to go green at work. As in tip number one, you save on paper, and a lot of paper too. Let your customers have the option to pay online of possible. The more you can do electronically that has traditionally been done with paper, the more the planet will benefit, and you’ll save money too.
5. Use laptops rather than stand alone computers and monitors. A laptop will consume around 50 watts of energy while in use compared to a computer and monitor, which consumes around 270 watts of energy. Also, have all laptops set so that they go to sleep if not used for more than 15 minutes. Screensavers do not save money. Quite the opposite; they use more! How to go green at work and save a lot of money? Switch off all computers and laptops when not in use. If all businesses did this they would save enough to power the city of Chicago for one year!

A new consumer phenomenon is called “tagging” or “folksonomies” (short for folks and taxonomy). Tagging is powerful because consumers are creating an organizational structure for online content. Folksonomies not only enable people to file away content under tags, but, even better, share it with others by filing it under a global taxonomy that they created.

Here’s how tagging works. Using sites such as del.icio.us – a bookmark sharing site – and Flickr – a photo sharing site – consumers are collaborating on categorizing online content under certain keywords, or tags.

For instance, an individual can post photographs of their iPod on Flickr and file it under the tag “iPod.” These images are now not only visible under the individual user’s iPod tag but also under the community iPod tag that displays all images consumers are generating and filing under the keyword. Right now Flickr has more than 3,500 photos that are labeled “iPod.”

Tagging is catching on because it is a natural complement to search. Type the word “blogs” into Google and it can’t tell if you are searching for information about how to launch a blog, how to read blogs, or just what. Large and small sites alike are already getting on to the folksonomy train. They are rolling out tag-like structures to help users more easily locate content that’s relevant to them.

Although tags are far from perfect, marketers should, nevertheless, be using them to keep a finger on the pulse of the American public. Start subscribing to RSS feeds to monitor how consumers are tagging information related to your product, service, company or space. These are living focus groups that are available for free, 24/7. Folksonomy sites can be also be carefully used to unleash viral marketing campaigns – with a caveat. Marketers should be transparent in who they are, why they are posting the link/photos and avoid spamming the services.